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Considering the events of recent days, one can be firmly convinced that Russia is waging a war of conquest against Ukraine. In the history of Europe, such cases have always led to large-scale conflicts that escalate into World Wars. However, one should also consider that the modern Western World lives in a different way of thinking. To avoid and prevent destructive and devastating conflicts, modern Europe, for example, seeks to suppress the aggressor economically and politically. The standard of the current Russian economy, destroyed in almost a week, demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach. There is also the fact that while the whole world seeks to prevent the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia, on the contrary, threatens with nuclear weapons.
The Russian establishment and government are uneven, lacking broad public support and suppressing any protests with particular brutality. Unlike the economies of the aggressors of the past, the economy of the Russian aggressor was practically destroyed in the first days of the war in Ukraine. The Third Reich, Italy, and the Japanese Empire, which started World War II, prepared for escalating their regional conflicts in advance. Stocks of resources, finances, equipment, reservation of troops, and the training of new personnel were the key to the future success of the planned wars. The past aggressors had levers of pressure on less protected neighbors and mechanisms of temporary containment of geopolitical competitors. Unlike them, Russia started this war as a gamble, hoping to create a modern blitzkrieg in Ukraine (Muradov 20). However, todays world community and the global economy do not accept aggressive wars. And it is the economic factor that says that Russia, as an aggressor state, will not be able to start a new world war.
It took years for Nazi Germany to lose its economic power, as did the Empire of Japan. It was these factors, together with thoughtful strategic planning, that allowed them to wage large-scale wars. However, the modern Russian army, which used to be one of the most powerful globally, suffers colossal losses in Ukraine. Demoralized soldiers, lack of a clear goal of the war, concealment of losses from their citizens, and lack of logistics speak of the hopelessness of the war for Russia. Also, absolute condemnation from geopolitical partners and the absence of military allies. With a destroyed economy and demoralized soldiers, modern Russia will not win the conflict in Ukraine or start a new world war.
Work Cited
Muradov, Ibrahim. The Russian Hybrid Warfare: The Cases of Ukraine and Georgia. Defence Studies, 2022, pp. 124. Crossref, doi:10.1080/14702436.2022.2030714.
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